How we rank — Copier’s pick

The Top traders list on the Copy tab is not ordered by profit. It is ordered by what copying each trader has actually paid: the realized cents per $1 share on positions that settled — before Polyburg’s copy fee. We call that number edge, and the ordering built on it Copier’s pick. This page is the in-app How we rank sheet, expanded.

Why a copier needs a different number than a trader. A trader’s 90-day P&L can be green on paper while the positions that actually settled lost money — the gain is unrealized, sitting in open positions that may never pay out. A copier who mirrors that trader and holds to settlement lives on the settled book, not the paper one. Edge measures the settled book.

What “edge” is

A Polymarket share pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy a share at 52¢ and hold it to settlement: it pays either +48¢ or −52¢. Edge is the average of those settled outcomes across a trader’s positions, per $1 share — what someone who entered with the trader and held to settlement made per share, before Polyburg’s copy fee.

The unit is cents per share, and the scale is small on purpose:

Prices move in ticks of about 1¢. An edge under ~2¢ — two ticks — is eaten by fees and slippage before it reaches a copier.
20¢+ survives anything: fees, slippage, a worse entry.
Negative means the trader’s settled positions lost per share — even if their 90-day P&L is green, because that gain can be unrealized.

A figure like 47.6¢ / share is an illustration of the unit, not a return: it says that, on this trader’s settled positions, each $1 share paid about 48¢ over its cost. It says nothing about the positions still open, and nothing about what your own copies will settle at.

Who qualifies

A trader is a Copier’s pick — ranked in the top group — when all of these hold (the thresholds are served with the ranking and shown in the in-app sheet; the current values):

At least 30 settled positions — enough for the average to mean something.
Edge of at least 2¢ per share — about two price ticks, the floor under which fees take everything.
Holds at least half of positions to settlement — a copier who mirrors exits needs a trader who actually sees positions through.
No more than half of volume in fee-heavy markets — where the fee, not the read, decides the outcome.
Not an arbitrage bot.

How they’re ordered

Among the traders who qualify, the order is a weighted score:

Component	Weight	What it rewards
Edge	40%	the settled cents per share, above
Realized profit	25%	size of settled winnings, so a tiny book can’t top a large one on rate alone
Win rate on settled positions	15%	consistency, not one big settlement
Share of profitable months	20%	rhythm — months that ended up, not one hot streak

Then, in this order:

Qualifying traders, by score.
Traders with settled-book data who don’t qualify — shown with their edge visible, including negative edge in the loss colour. We show it rather than hide it: a negative edge is exactly what a copier needs to see.
Traders without settled-book data — they show — and sort after. Absent is never rendered as zero.

The ranking is recomputed about every 6 hours, and edge data covers the roughly twenty traders in each run’s shortlist.

Where you’ll see it

Copy tab (Simple mode) — the heading reads Top traders — ranked by settled edge, with two chips under it: Copier’s pick (the default) and 90-day P&L, which restores the old order. The heading changes to Top traders — by 90-day P&L when you pick the latter. How we rank › opens the sheet titled How we rank — Copier’s pick.
Every list row with settled-book data carries a chip — Edge 47.6¢ / share — in the accent colour from 2¢ up and in the loss colour when negative. No chip when the number is unknown.
Traders tab (Advanced mode) — the sort menu gains Settled edge (¢ / share). The default order there is unchanged; Advanced users chose the tool.
Trader profile — an Edge (settled) tile under the trait badges: the value (or —) with a sub-line like 178 settled · 63% won · qualifies for Copier’s pick, or No settled-book data in this run. Tap it for the explainer.

What edge is not

Not net of fees. It is measured before Polyburg’s copy fee — which is why the ~2¢ floor exists. See Fees.
Not your result. You enter at a different moment and price than the trader did, and your exits are yours (stop-loss, take-profit, sell-when-they-sell). Edge tells you what the trader’s settled positions paid, not what your copies will.
Not Discovery’s ranking. The curated list is built and ordered by the Trader Discovery pipeline on consistency, followability, execution style and the bot flag. Copier’s pick is Polyburg’s own published lens on top of that list — the same one the trader announcements cite.
Not a prediction. Past settled positions do not predict future ones.

Tutorial: Copy a trader yourself — where the ranking meets the tap.
Trader Discovery — the list Copier’s pick is ordered from.
Copy Trade — what happens after you tap Copy this trader.